After a very quiet Spring it appears we are entering a fairly active pattern for severe weather as upper level southwest flow establishes itself this weekend over the central CONUS.

 

Models have been advertising a seasonally moderate strength system to eject out of the central Rockies later this weekend.  By Sunday a surface low should be rolling through Kansas.  Moisture will be sorely lacking early in the weekend, but by Sunday it should return in earnest. 

 

Most of the models agree that the surface low should be in northern Kansas by late afternoon Sunday.  This will keep surface winds backed ahead of it in northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and southwest Iowa.  With the early day cap in place, temps should be allowed to rise well into the 80s over the warm sector.  Morning storm activity should have long exited this region.  With such warmth combined with the deepening moisture, CAPE values will likely exceed the 3,000j/kg mark by late day.  LIs are projected to be in the -7 to -10 range as well.  The only lacking feature seems to be a strong LLJ.  This keeps Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) rather meager with values less than 150m2s2.  Be that as it may, with so much instability, and the presence of a fairly deep surface low it should make for some pretty interesting weather in this area by late in the day. 

 

This event is still about 48hrs away, but our early thinking is that southeast Nebraska is the place to be.  Maybe southwest Iowa if things speed up a bit.  Obviously if things slow up a bit north-central Kansas or south-central Nebraska would be the target.  Still a bit early. 

 

So what are the pros and cons for this event as it stands now....

 

Pros:  Great moisture return.  Respectable mid-level winds.  Decent speed shear.  Presence of a fairly deep surface low to the west of the target area in Kansas. 

 

Cons:  Lack of moderate to strong low level jet, upper level winds could be a bit better, cap may end up being a limiting factor for daytime convection.

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